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National Weather Service
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Thu Mar 05 2026
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 07 2026
...Severe thunderstorms expected for portions of the southern to central Plains today, expanding eastward into portions of the Midwest on Friday...
...Favorable conditions for the spreading of wildfires over the southern High Plains...
...Wintry weather for the central/northern Rockies and portions of central New England tonight...
...Temperatures will be well above average from the Great Plains to much of the eastern U.S. today and Friday...
An amplified upper level pattern with troughing over the Rockies and ridging downstream over the East will set up a favorable pattern for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain/flash flooding from portions of western Texas into southern Kansas today. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Red River Valley into the Ohio Valley early Thursday morning will begin to wind down through this afternoon but new thunderstorm development ahead of a dryline is expected by this evening over Texas into Oklahoma. These storms will have the potential to be severe with the activity spreading north and east through Oklahoma into parts of Kansas tonight. Meanwhile, gusty winds and low relative humidities will favor an increased threat for wildfire development over eastern New Mexico today and spreading into portions of western Texas on Friday.
On the cool side of the frontal boundary, areas of snow will advance from the interior portions of the Northwest into the northern and central Rocky Mountains today, continuing for the central Rockies into Friday. Locally heavy snow will be possible with snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches likely for the higher terrain, with accumulations over a foot possible for a few locations.
A warm front over the middle of the country will lift north through Friday, allowing above average warmth to expand from the Great Plains into much of the eastern U.S. through the end of the work week. Locations from Nebraska and South Dakota into much of the Ohio Valley are expected to see high temperatures of 20 to 30 degrees above average. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected on Friday from the southern/central Plains into portions of the Midwest where the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight and Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday.
New England will stay cooler than average due to its location north of a stationary front draped across the Mid-Atlantic coast and as a secondary cold frontal surge moves through later today. Low pressure tracking south of the region will allow for a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain across portions of central New England late this evening into early Friday morning with freezing rain likely being the dominant hazard in and around the higher terrain from interior New York into Massachusetts with ice accumulation values of 0.10 to 0.25 inches (locally higher) possible. Precipiation will end by mid-day Friday across the Northeast but temperatures will remain cool with highs only in the 30s for many locations across New England.
Otto