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Short Range Forecast Discussion
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 18 2025 - 12Z Sun Jul 20 2025
...Heightened flash flooding threat for portions of the Ohio Valley, Southern Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic states Friday through Sunday...
...Flash flood risk lingers along the Central Gulf Coast on Friday...
...Widespread heat across the Intermountain West, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Lower Mississippi Valley...
The flow pattern is an unusual one for July, with a much stronger than average subtropical ridge near the eastern Gulf (up to 3 standard deviations stronger than July norms), and a weak negative anomaly across the Northern Tier of the country caused by a more southerly than average jet stream for July. The squeeze play between these features causes the jet stream itself to be stronger than average, with occasional speed maxima of 120 kts/140 mph. This will allow systems in the northern tier of the country to remain progressive and temperatures near and to the south of systems' fronts to remain oppressive. It will also foster above average moisture availability into fronts due to the stronger than average Gulf inflow/boundary layer moisture convergence caused by the anomalous flow pattern.
The front at the base of the Westerlies wavers around the Ohio Valley, the southern Great Lakes, the Southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days, providing the focus for thunderstorms with greater organization than typical for July which leads to both an enhanced flash flood risk and severe weather risk from the Midwest eastward and southeastward into this weekend. The risk for both severe weather and flash flooding on Friday is greatest in the Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic States/North Carolina, and on Saturday and Sunday the greater flash flood risk from the Corn Belt across the Ohio Valley into the Southern Appalachians. The greatest severe weather risk lies from the Corn Belt into the southern Great Lakes on Saturday.
Across portions of the Central Gulf Coast, the former tropical disturbance will march farther inland, enhancing flash flood concerns for the coastal plain between Houston and Pensacola on Friday. This system along with plentiful Gulf moisture is being pushed west and north by an anomalously strong subtropical ridge across the eastern Gulf Coast which drifts west each day. Because of the strong ridging aloft and above average Gulf moisture present, uncomfortable heat continues this week across portions of the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and the Southeast near the south of the front. Highs into the 90s combined with the very humid airmass leads to widespread coverage of Moderate to Major Heat Risk, very problematic for those without access to air conditioning. Stay inside when possible and stay hydrated.
On the western periphery of the Gulf moisture, an active Monsoonal pattern continues for Arizona and portions of the Southern Rockies through Sunday, with scattered thunderstorms expected daily and a threat for isolated flash flooding, especially for terrain, sensitive areas from recent rains, and recent burn scars. Across the interior Northwest, it starts out hot on Friday ahead of an incoming cold front. Breezy conditions along with dryness has led to the posting of Red Flag Warnings in and near the Columbia Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The front's passage cools off the Columbia Basin noticeably by Saturday, though heat remains across the remainder of the Intermountain West through at least Sunday. Even still, breezy conditions and low relative humidities lead to an elevated fire risk continuing in and near the Columbia Basin, southern Idaho, and northern Nevada on Saturday. Conditions favorable for fire weather shift to southern Idaho, farther into Nevada, and into northeastern-most California on Sunday.
Roth