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National Weather Service
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 12 2026
...Multi-day heavy rain/flooding and severe weather from the south-central to east-central U.S. this weekend into next week...
...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Guidance now shows good agreement with the overall flow evolution through the upcoming medium range period next week in a pattern with above normal predictability. Normal smaller scale timing and amplitude variances remain, but there remains strong support of a protracted period with heavy rain/flooding and strong to severe convective threats from the south-central to east-central U.S. as fueled by channeled Gulf moisture/instability and upper jet lift interaction with wavy frontal systems and repeat activity. There have been recent differences with respect to the ejection of a main southern stream closed Baja low that would additionally enhance activity with approach. However, latest 00 UTC models have converged on a similar solution now with the slower/amplified trend of the Canadian model to match the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/EC-AIFS with bring the feature to the southern Plains into by next midweek. A composite model blend now offers a good lower 48 forecast basis.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
It generally remains the case that a well defined split flow pattern aloft over the nation this weekend into next week will be highlighted initially by a closed upper low near Baja and warming Southeast U.S. ridge. Ample moisture and instability will channel into the central U.S. to fuel widespread thunderstorms with severe and flooding potential with repeat focus over the south-central U.S. as enhanced by wavy frontal systems and favorable upper jet. Runoff threats may build with each round of rain given a repeating pattern with training potential. Marginal Risk areas for a threat of excessive rainfall for flooding/runoff are now in place for portions of the south-central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday with active weather to extend and flourish into next week with expansion through the Mississippi Valley and east-central U.S. with expected Baja closed low ejection. SPC is also highlighting some severe weather potential.
Meanwhile, northern stream systems progressing over southern Canada and the U.S. northern tier in broadly cyclonic upper flow will offer periods of wintry precipitation along with a threat of high winds mainly from the Cascades to northern Rockies/Plains. More amplified northern stream digging from the Northwest to the central U.S. may also allow for growing stream phasing with time, which should lead to the ejection of the Baja closed low and the subsequent possible significant rainfall enhancement and northeastward expansion up through the central U.S. early to mid next week. Cold air intrusion across the north-central states may also support broad snows on the northwest and northern periphery of emerging precipitation shields.
The amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper ridge will promote significant springtime warming over the central and eastern U.S. into the weekend, with focus shifting into the East into early next week. Temperatures will be 20-30 degrees above average, with 80s reaching as far north as parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic. Daily records could become widespread.
Schichtel